XRP ETF tickets could exceed USD 8.3 billion by 2026, according to Standard Chartered

• NAV reference points for BTC and ETH ETFs support the prognosis.
• The final deadline of the SEC for the approval of the XRP ETF is October 12.
• Polymarket data show a 79% approval possibilities by the end of the year.

The anticipation of an XRP stock exchange (ETF) is increasing in the cryptocurrency sector as analysts weigh the possible entries, the impacts on the market and the regulatory dynamics.

While rumors and delays have shaped much of the recent conversation, forecasts based on key institutions now offer a clearer image.

Standard Chartered Bank projects that an ETF in the XRP cash that lies in the US could attract between USD 4.4 billion and USD 8.3 billion in tickets within its first year, according to the reference points of net assets of assets observed in the ETF of Bitcoin and Ethereum existing.

This projection, although optimistic, is cautious by others in the market.

Standard Chartered bases its projection on the ETF reference rates

Standard Chartered Digital Assets Research Head of Digital Assets, Gendrick, said the NAV capitalization proportions of the ETF to the US cash. UU. Already approved were used to model the possible XRP ETF tickets.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum Cash ETF currently show NAV of around 6% and 3% of their respective market capitalizations.

The application of these proportions to the XRP market capitalization results in a range of USD 4.4 billion to USD 8.3 billion.

Kendrick highlighted the Bitwise ETP data in Europe, where XRP, Solana and Litecoin quote along with BTC and ETH.

He pointed out that the Altcoins represent a most of the ETP NAV in relation to their market capitalizations, although this may reflect the lowest number of products available for Altcoins compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The XRP price forecast is reviewed in the middle of ETF optimism

Based on the entrances ETF anticipated, Standard Chartered forecast A significant increase in the price of XRP.

The bank expects XRP to rise to $ 5.50 at the end of 2025 and reach $ 8.00 in 2026.

The objective for 2029 is set at $ 12.25.

This forecast involves the approval of the XRP ETF and a general continuation of the growth of investment vehicles in digital assets.

As a comparison, Kendrick said Bitcoin could reach the USD 120,000 in the second quarter of 2025, the USD 200,000 at the end of the year and the USD 500,000 in 2028.

XRP is expected to maintain the rhythm, although with a lower general adoption and inflation differences.

The current XRP inflation rate is 6%, compared to 0.8% Bitcoin.

Bitfinex analysts issue a cautious counterpoint

Despite the bullish projections, not all market observers are convinced that XRP ETFs generate the same enthusiasm as Bitcoin products.

Exchange analysts Bitfinex cryptocurrencies argue that investors’ interest may be dispersed in an increasing list of ETF of Altcoins.

As such, it is possible that XRP does not see entries comparable to those of Bitcoin, even if approved.

Its caution reflects broader concerns about the saturation of the ETF market and regulatory clarity.

While Bitcoin enjoys legal clarity as raw material, XRP has faced classification problems and legal disputes that can influence investors’ confidence.

The schedule for the approval of the XRP ETF is still uncertain

Several financial companies, such as Grayscale, Wisdomtree, Bitwise, Canary and 21Shares, have presented XRP ETF before the stock exchange and values ​​commission.

Bitwise’s request was officially recognized on February 18, establishing a maximum period of 240 days, or on October 12, for a final decision.

This reflects the timeline applied to Bitcoin Cash ETFs in early 2024.

However, other ETF applications of Altcoins, such as those of Solana and Litecoin, could affect when a decision on XRP is made.

According to Kendrick, Litecoin can be a priority given its similarity with Bitcoin and its historical treatment as merchandise.

Polymarket data shows that, from now on, the probability that the XRP ETF be approved for July 31 is 39%, increasing to 79% at the end of the year.

Analysts such as Eric Bloomberg Balchunas suggest that Litecoin could be the first among the Altcoins to obtain approval, followed by Hbar and, finally, XRP and Solana, which face unresolved security classification challenges.