Bitcoin trades just below the USD 94,000 while investors prepare for the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday and the press conference after the Jerome Powell meeting.
Fountain: Coinmarketcap
It is widely expected that the Fed maintains its stable reference interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, and CME Fedwatch tool data show a 95.6%probability that the types are maintained.
Despite this consensus, traders prepare for the volatility caused by Powell’s comments about economic perspectives, inflation and the path of types, which could influence the feeling of risk in digital assets.
Market participants focus especially on future orientation, since recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have clouded the expectations of type cuts at the end of this year.
The volume of operations falls and ETF tickets slow down before the Fed event
The recent Bitcoin lateral movement reflects a cautious mood in the market.
ETF tickets have cooled and leverage seems to be decreasing as traders expect clarity.
Swissblock analysts describe the environment as a “battle of resistance” and point out that open interests and negative financing rates point to an intensification of bass bets.
They indicate the USD 97,000 to USD 98,500 as a critical resistance zone.
A rupture above could trigger short liquidations, but a failed rebound could catch the bullish traders if the impulse fades.
Liquidation data also support this voltage. As the price is maintained within a narrow range, derivative operators seem to be betting on a volatile movement in any direction.
The appetite for the risk has cooled, but a significant positioning is still open, which suggests that market participants are preparing for a break or collapse, depending on Powell’s tone.
Powell’s orientation could determine the market management
While no changes in rates are expected this week, operators are looking for clues about the Fed position for June and beyond.
In previous meetings, Powell’s words have caused important oscillations in cryptocurrency markets.
In December 2023 there was an aggressive turn that caused a widespread sale of risk assets, and some fear it is repeated if Powell indicates a greater hardening or ignores the recent signs of economic deceleration.
Market confidence has been tarnished by the weak GDP data and renewed commercial tensions with China.
The impact of the recent tariff rhetoric of President Donald Trump has generated concerns that the expected cuts that were expected for June can now be delayed.
Veteran Trader Mathew Dixon said that the expectations of a cut in June have already been suspended, which further presses the feeling.
The recent gold rebound is also considered a sign of risk aversion. According to analysts, this suggests that investors are protecting against possible shocks of the Fed announcement.
Bitcoin’s price action depends on macro signals
Bitcoin is currently consolidating near the local support as operators weigh macroeconomic uncertainty.
As reported, Degens, or high -risk cryptocurrency traders are building long positions, anticipating a price movement.
However, some analysts warn that market creators can push the downward prices to trigger Stop Loss before a possible rise.
Swissblock’s analysis supports this opinion, suggesting that any break could be preceded by a final liquidity scan.
Historical data offers contradictory signals. Three of the last five FOMC ads have agreed with the reblin’s rebounds, but This week’s event It is tarnished by more complex macroeconomic conditions.
Unresolved tensions between the United States and China, the lower demand for consumers and political pressure around inflation weigh a lot about the feeling of the market.
The co -founder of Bitmex, Arthur Hayes, has previously argued that a change back to quantitative flexibility could light a parabolic rebound in Bitcoin.
But in the absence of moderate signals, Bitcoin could test the recent minimums again in a strong setback.
Without a clear catalyst in either of the two senses, the market remains delicately balanced, waiting for the next Powell movement.
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